CO₂ levies: a price driver announced in advance

Climate protection needs solutions. An ever higher bill alone is not yet a solution. Higher CO₂ prices make fossil energy more expensive and, through higher production costs, can also push consumer prices up.^[1][2]

The curve is steep. The burden is real.

In 2021 the national CO₂ price stood at 25 euros per tonne; in 2026 the auction corridor runs from 55 to 65 euros: 120 to 160 per cent more in five years.^[3] Behind that lie costs for filling up and heating which hit citizens and companies, not merely an abstract figure in a statute.^[1][2]

Same route. Same load. Almost ten times the CO₂ costs.

A lorry load from Munich to Hamburg makes the burden tangible: in our 800 km model calculation the CO₂-related costs rise from 17.15 euros in 2021 to 171.00 euros at an assumed price of 65 euros per tonne in 2026; besides the more expensive CO₂ share in the diesel, what matters is the CO₂ toll introduced on top.^[3][4][5] That is around 154 euros more per load, and not a tenfold increase in total transport costs.^[4][5]

The pressure on prices does not stop at the factory gate.

When energy and inputs become more expensive, companies can pass the higher costs on through their selling prices; the burden from production and transport can thus reach consumers too.^[6] How much is passed on depends on competition, on alternatives and on demand;^[6][7] higher CO₂ costs can also weigh on company profits and on real purchasing power.^[8]

That is why the burden on citizens, on small and medium-sized businesses and on industry belongs openly on the table. Anyone promising affordability also has to explain how companies are to invest and how households are to finance the transition.

Up to 2031: a cost risk rather than planning certainty.

For 2027 the auction corridor of 55 to 65 euros per tonne is to be continued, but was still going through parliament at the cut-off date; from 2028 ETS2 is to form the price for the road transport emissions it covers on the market.^[9][10][11] At an assumed 150 euros per tonne the same model load, including an unchanged assumed CO₂ toll, would cost around 229 euros, and at 200 euros per tonne around 264 euros; these are scenarios, not prices that have been decided.^[4][5]

Climate protection has to work. Not just collect money.

My demand is clear: affordable alternatives, reliable conditions and comprehensible relief. Anyone demanding change has to make it economically possible. A rising bill is no substitute either for working infrastructure or for an investment that can be financed.

Reading the figures correctly

The model journey assumes 800 kilometres fully subject to toll, 256 litres of diesel, a rounded 2.68 kg of CO₂ per litre, Euro VI, at least five axles and CO₂ class 1; all journey costs are calculated excluding deductible VAT.^[4][5] At 55 rather than 65 euros per tonne the total is 164.13 rather than 171.00 euros; separate certificate purchases at 68 and 70 euros per tonne respectively are not included in the €55–65 auction model.^[3]

CO₂ pricing is a price impulse, not the explanation for inflation as a whole: in its forecast of December 2025 the Bundesbank put the direct contribution to inflation of a rise from 55 to 65 euros per tonne in 2026 at around 0.1 percentage points; an unchanged CO₂ price produces no renewed direct price impulse in the following year, and falling prices are possible too.^[2] The charts therefore show cost components and scenarios, not a curve of inflation across the economy; relief measures, subsidies and adjustments in consumption are not taken into account in the example calculation.

Andreas W. HerbCEO MBG Group, Paderborn